Lock of the week:
Jon Rahm – $11,800 – We crushed the article last week with all of our picks, and RahmThreat was the lock of the week. If it ain’t broke…don’t fix it! It’s a stronger field this week, but as red hot as Rahm is, it doesn’t matter for the defending Farmers Insurance Champion. He’s still likely to be around 20-25% owned in most GPP’s on DraftKings, but if you want the lock, he’s the lock. He can use his length more so than last week and his experienced caddie, Adam Hayes, can navigate him around this track with ease. Dial him up in GPPs. However, we may start our lineups below Rahm if playing cash.
Brendan Steele $7,800 – The Steele Curtain may have one of our least favorite golf swings on the PGA Tour (seriously, watch his swing…so ugly), but you can’t argue it’s effectiveness. He’s a California guy who’s familiar putting on these Poa Annua putting surfaces. Our caddie insight this week on the podcast mentioned that a player is either comfortable putting Poa or they aren’t. There is no in between. Steele is clearly comfortable as he’s gained 19 strokes on the field in the last five years at Torrey Pines. He’s coming off a T20 finish last week, he’s a bomber, and plays long par 4’s and par 5’s about as good as anyone on the PGA Tour. We like Brendan in cash or GPP lineups.
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Jhonattan Vegas $7,700 – Jhonny V is in tremendous form coming off a solid week at the CareerBuilder where he continued making birdies in bunches. Like Steele, he’s gained 19 strokes on the field in the last five years at Torrey Pines. He’s another West Coast guy familiar with these green surfaces. The length off the tee and P5 scoring prowess will work in Jhonny’s favor on these lengthy Par 72s. With numerous value plays in the $8K & $7K range this week, ownership will likely be diluted and Vegas could come in sub 15%. We love him in GPPs and cash lineups. He’s got real winning upside given his recent form.
JJ Spaun $7,500 – You’ll notice a theme this week as we target bombers, scorers, ball strikers and West Coast types to navigate the most difficult course they’ve seen on the PGA Tour this season in Torrey Pines. Enter second-year pro, JJ Spaun. JJ’s first time at Torrey in 2017 resulted in a T9. He’s a Cali native that beats the dimples off the golf ball on the regular. We’ve spoken to more than one caddie on the PGA Tour that thinks Spaun may be the best pure iron player around. That ball-striking could also come in handy if the wind picks up this week. He’s another GPP and cash game lock for us.
Best bargain basement option:
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Seamus Power $7,100 – Seamus is far and away one of our favorite GPP plays on DraftKings. The price is right. The form is right coming off a weekend backdoor top 15. Power is an appropriate name for this second year stud as he bombs off the tee and eats P5’s for breakfast, lunch and dinner. He racked up 22 birdies at the CareerBuilder last week. His ownership will likely be below 10% and he’s got T10 upside. He makes a nice pivot play from Glover and Horschel (also at $7100) as those household names are likely to be higher owned. He’s a full send in GPPs and we aren’t afraid to have him in a couple cash lineups.
Player to Avoid:
Tiger Woods $9,700 – It’s Tiger week! Eldrick Tont Woods makes his 2018 debut at a course where he’s won more times than the Patriots have Super Bowl rings. We’re excited. It’s great for the game. The Tiger effect is real in the golf business, even for a couple of bloviating Fantasy Golf Podcast hosts. He looked good in December at the Hero World Challenge. He looked healthy. His swing looked solid. However, he sucked around the greens. Sucked. The touch around the greens may be the last thing to show up for Tiger until he gets more tournaments under his belt. Chipping in the thick rough at Torrey is a real concern. We had a caddie tell us this week that the course has seen it’s fair share of rain in the last month which will make the rough even tougher. The price tag on Tiger is shockingly high at $9,700 on DraftKings. We were confident he’d come in around $8,300 – $9,000. At that price, in addition to inflated ownership, because it’s Tiger week, he’s an easy fade for us. For Tiger to return value on DraftKings, you really need him to finish T10 or better with a ton of birdies. We think Tiger makes the cut and likely finishes T40, but we’ll gladly fade for DFS purposes. Although, even though it’s a fade for us…we hope he WINS!