Lock of the week:
Tiger Woods $10,000 – Eldrick opens as the Vegas favorite at Bay Hill coming off a near victory last week and flashing the Tiger of old. He’s won the Arnold Palmer Invitational eight times. We anticipate his ownership on DraftKings to be rather high in GPPs since they have him at only $10K, but we won’t be mad at you if you play him regardless. However, we will only play him in cash games, double ups and 50/50s on DraftKings and Fanduel. He’s the safest bet on the board this week with question marks over the guys priced above him. Can you imagine Tiger and Phil each winning in the month leading up to The Masters…? Sign. Us. Up!
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Brandt Snedeker $8,300 – Sneds looked like he didn’t know which end of the club to hold on Sunday at The Valspar. It’s possible that one poor and highly televised round may have soured people this week on playing Snedeker. However, he’s gained 17 strokes total in the last five years at Bay Hill, and 15 strokes total in his last six weeks on the PGA Tour. He’s also 1 of 10 players in this entire field to be in the top 25 in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the short term (last 12 rounds) and the long term (last 100 rounds). In danger of missing his first Masters in nearly a decade, we see Sneds performing well again this week given the closing window for him to get the invite to Augusta National.
Luke List $8,100 – List is a hard horse to quit these days. He’s having the best start to a season ever, and seemingly around the top of the leaderboard every week. He’s top 25 in this field in SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, and SG: Around the Green over the last 12 rounds which is why he’s gained 31 strokes total in the last six weeks. In his first attempt at Bay Hill in 2017, he finished T17. Bay Hill is essentially Copperhead, but with better scoring opportunities on the par 5’s. Luke’s birdie or better rate on par 5’s is tops on the PGA Tour. List is another Masters bubble boy we’ll look to have plenty of in GPP and cash games on DraftKings.
Emiliano Grillo $7,600 – There’s a theme going here around Masters bubble boys. Grillo is another in danger of missing The Masters due to world golf ranking. However, he’s playing really well right now coming off a T10 in India last week and gaining eight strokes in the last six weeks on the PGA Tour. Grillo has played Bay Hill well and thrives on fast, Bermuda greens. His game fits this venue to perfection as he rarely finds trouble off the tee and pounds greens with exceptional iron play. If the putter gets hot, Grillo has the upside to win this event. Full send.
Best bargain basement option:
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Sean O’Hair $7,000 – It’s been a tough week for us in terms of finding a low-cost scrub value. We aren’t huge fans of the $6K range this week on DraftKings and we’ll be taking a more balanced approach. There are a number of names we could take in the $7100 spot, but those would be obvious plays with very little ownership leverage. O’Hair could be a guy who’s played well at Bay Hill in the past with ownership sub 10% in DraftKings GPPs. He’s top 25 in this field in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the long term and his approach game has been solid in his last three events. We won’t be dipping this low too much this week, but when we do, we won’t skip over O’Hair.
Player to Avoid:
Rory Mcllroy $10,700 – Rory can’t putt. Rory is not himself right now. It’s tough to see him struggle like this, but we’re confident he’ll come out of it. However, we’re not interested in jumping on him right now given the poor form and price. He’s played Bay Hill well in the past, but he’s never entered a week here where his form was this bad. There’s not a stat category relevant to Bay Hill that he’s checking in the last 12 or 24 rounds on the PGA Tour. If you’re looking to play a higher priced guy in not so great form, move to Fowler.