Lock of the week:
Sergio Garcia – $10,500 – Everyone’s favorite Spaniard makes his PGA Tour debut this week where he’s gained 31 strokes total over the last five years. He’s quietly been lighting the European Tour on fire with a win, four T25s and his worst finish being a T32. Sergio has been one of the purest ball strikers on the planet for the last two decades, and that will come in handy for PGA National. Players who hit it solid every time in the wind have a better chance of controlling ball flight and distance. We love the winning potential and virtual lock to make the cut Sergio presents this week. We’ll have heaps of him in GPPs and cash games.
Jason Dufner $8,600 – Duff Daddy has been quoted as enjoying the challenge PGA National presents, and it shows. He’s gained 12 strokes total in the last five years. His form is solid having gained almost 11 strokes total in his last 6 events. You have to hit fairways, avoid the thick bermuda rough and water at PGA National. The Auburn grad is T25 in this field in Fairways Gained over the last 12 rounds. He’s likely sat out most of the West Coast swing to avoid the Poa green surfaces since he’s not known for his flat stick prowess. The Bermuda greens this week will be a welcomed sight to Dufner.
Embed from Getty Images
Louis Oosthuizen $7,900 – This is a pure value play with King Louis! The price of $7,900 is too good to pass up when you consider his winning upside and positive expected value. He has been known to burn DFS players in the past with his random WD. We likely won’t use him in cash games, but our exposure in GPPs will absolutely be there. Let’s just hope he shipped his mattress to the hotel.
Ian Poulter $7,200 – With the shank heard round the world at the Waste Management hopefully far from Poulter’s mind, he can find some form this week at a course he’s gained 16 strokes total in the last five years. With scrambling being essential this week, Poulter’s ability is proven both in the last 12 rounds and last 100 rounds. His odds of making the cut are quite high and his T10 upside makes his price tag rather intriguing.
Best bargain basement option:
Embed from Getty Images
Stewart Cink $6,700 – This is another week where we aren’t crazy about the $6K range on DraftKings. There are a few other than Cink that we don’t mind like, McGirt, O’Hair, Barber, and Armour. But of all the options available, Cink seems to be the best bet to make the cut. He’s gained over 14 strokes total in the last five years at PGA National and he’s 39th in this field in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 100 rounds. His form is nothing to write home about, but it’s not cringe-worthy. We won’t be dipping into the $6K range much this week, but Cink will be a handful of GPP lineups. We aren’t rostering anyone in the $6K range for cash games, double ups, or 50/50s.
Player to Avoid:
Tyrell Hatton $9,500 – Fading Hatton is our bold stance of the week. He’s in fantastic form worldwide with two wins since October. He finished second at The Honda Classic last year in his first attempt, and he’s a ball striking Englishman that plays well in windy conditions. However, he’s likely to be fairly popular in GPPs with ownership over 20% and the price tag is a little steep for such a volatile player.
If you aren’t already aware based on his entertaining Twitter account, Hatton is what you would call a “loose cannon.” On and off the golf course, he’s known to have his fair share of meltdowns. He’s even quoted as saying he hates chipping from and putting on Bermuda surfaces. It clearly wasn’t an issue last year at PGA National, but what if that doesn’t go so well this year? With the higher ownership and higher price tag, plus the risk of on course mental ejection, we’re going to take our chances and fade Hatton all around. We’d much prefer another ball striking Brit just below him in Tommy Fleetwood.