Lock of the week:
Dustin Johnson – $11,700 – Paying up for DJ this week should be no problem considering the tremendous value of players in the $6K range. We’ve seen a lot of the studs win so far this year, and this week will likely be no exception. Enter DJ (former Pebble winner), who’s gained more than 35 strokes on the field in his last five attempts at Pebble. DJ checks all the stat boxes this week. It’s quite a simple play. Play the world #1 on a course he loves where he scores birdies and eagles in bunches. The end.
Gary Woodland $9,900 – It’s no shock to us that Gary finally closed one out this past week. He’s been a ball striking stud the last few seasons but struggled with the putter. However, after some help from Butch Harmon & Brad Faxon, Gary’s putting issues are apparently behind him. He didn’t see much of a price increase after the win on DraftKings, and he was only around 11% owned on average for the WMPO. There is sometimes a move to avoid the previous week’s winner due to popularity and the likelihood of back to back wins being bleak. We’re willing to make the investment this week in Gary. You don’t need him to win at $9900. He’s been the number one DraftKings point scorer in 2018 and number one in the field in P5 scoring. We love Gary again this week in GPPs and cash games.
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Patrick Reed $7,900 – “Fatrick” Reed [insert heart emoticon]’s Pebble Beach. He’s gained 44 strokes on the field in the last five years at Pebble. He seems to have found a little form with back to back T25s recently. Scrambling will be another key focus this week as the greens on all three Pebble Beach courses are the size of our living room. Reed has been one of the best scramblers on the PGA Tour for years. In the last five PGA Tour seasons, Reed has finished T20 on SG: Around the Green twice which is good for 5th in the field this week.
Chris Kirk $7,100 – There are so many options in this salary range, but we thought we’d give you one we’re shockingly not hearing a bunch of chatter about so far this week. The University of Georgia product has had a T11, T35 & T10 so far in 2018 with one missed cut. He’s gained 16 strokes on the field at Pebble in the last five years. Despite the great form, great course history, and low price, Kirk will likely go under-owned in GPPs giving you leverage. We’re not afraid to play him in cash games either.
Best bargain basement option:
Lanto Griffin $6,700 – DraftKings gives you soooooo many options in the $6K range this week as we mentioned above regarding playing DJ. Here are some of the plays that are likely safer than Lanto in that range, but they WILL be very high owned in GPPs: Cabrera Bello, Dechambeau, Donald, Knox, McDowell, Henley, and Horschel. These are all solid plays and tremendous values. However, if you seek to take down a big GPP contest, you must have a couple players under the 5% ownership mark. Enter 18Birdies Ambassador, Lanto Griffin! Lanto will be sub 2% across most contests. He’s the definition of boom or bust. He’s never played here before, but Lanto eats on Par 5’s. He’s T20 in this field in DraftKings scoring and P5 Scoring in the last three tournaments. We hope to see Lanto club down off the tee when necessary, but reach most of these P5’s in two shots presenting a ton of birdie/eagle opportunities. In cash games, play the players I mentioned above and leave Lanto alone. But, if you’re chasing that big GPP takedown…have some exposure.
Player to Avoid:
Branden Grace $9,100 – Grace is a world class player that thrives on tough courses where scoring is a premium. Pebble does not fit that description. He’s outside the top 40 in this field in DraftKings scoring, P5 scoring and SG: Around the Green in the last two years. Those are key stats for us this week, and you need the 9th highest priced guy on DraftKings to look better than that in terms of stat fit. His Vegas odds to win position him at 40/1, which is longer than Patrick Reed and about four other guys priced lower than him on DK. He’s overpriced. He’ll make the cut, but his upside seems limited here for the price point.